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Publications

JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS

2016

Salazar, Lina, Julian Aramburu, Mario Gonzalez Flores, and Paul Winters. “Sowing for Food Security: A Case Study of Smallholder Farmers in Bolivia.” Food Policy 65:32-52.

Stecklov, Guy, Alex Weinreb and Paul Winters.  “The exclusion from welfare benefits: Resentment and survey attrition in a randomized controlled trial in Mexico. Social Science Review 60: 110-109,

2015

Carletto, Gero, Marie Ruel, Paul Winters and Alberto Zezza. “Farm-level pathways to improved nutritional status: Introduction to the special issue.” Journal of Development Studies 51(8): 945-957.

Carletto, Gero, Sydney Gourlay and Paul Winters. “From Guesstimates to GPStimates: Land Area Measurement and Implications for Agricultural Analysis.” Journal of African Economies 24(5): 593-628.

Henderson, Heath, Leonardo Corral, Eric Siminig and Paul Winters. “Land Accumulation Dynamics in Developing Country Agriculture.” Journal of Development Studies 51(6): 743-761.

Kilic, Talip, Gero Carletto, and Paul Winters. Gender and agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: introduction to the special issue. Agricultural Economics 46(3): 281-284.

Oseni, Gbemisola, Paul Corral, Markus Goldstein and Paul Winters. “Explaining gender differentials in agricultural production in Nigeria” Agricultural Economics 46(3): 285–310.

Karamba, R. Wendy and Paul Winters. “Gender and agricultural productivity: implications of the Farm Input Subsidy Program in Malawi.” Agricultural Economics 46(3): 357–374.

Kilic, Talip, Edward Whitney and Paul Winters. (2015) “Evaluating the Targeting Performance of the Malawi Farmer Input Subsidy Program.” Journal of African Economies 24(1): 26-56.

2014

Asfaw , Solomon, Benjamin Davis, Josh Dewbre, Sudhanshu Handa and Paul Winters. (2014) “Cash transfer programmes, productive activities and labour supply: Evidence from randomized experiment in Kenya.” Journal of Development Studies 50(8): 1172-1196.

González-Flores, Mario, Boris E. Bravo-Ureta, Daniel Solís and Paul Winters. (2014) “The impact of high value markets on smallholder productivity in the Ecuadorean Sierra: A Stochastic Production Frontier approach correcting for selectivity bias.” Food Policy 44: 237-247.

2013

Boone, Ryan, Katia Covarrubias, Benjamin Davis and Paul Winters. (2013) “Cash transfer programs and agricultural production: The Case of Malawi.” Agricultural Economics 44: 365-378.

Winters, Paul, Leonardo Corral and Adela Moreda Mora. (2013) “Assessing the Role of Tourism in Poverty Alleviation: A Research Agenda.” Development Policy Review 31 (2): 177-202.

2012

Gonzalez-Flores, Mario, Maria Heracleous and Paul Winters. (2012) “Leaving the Safety Net: An Analysis of Dropouts in an Urban Conditional Cash Transfer Program.” World Development 40(12): 2505-2521.

Lipper, Leslie, Romina Cavatassi and Paul Winters. (2012) “Seed supply in local markets: supporting sustainable use of crop genetic resources.” Environment and Development Economics 17(5): 507-521.

Cavatassi, Romina, Leslie Lipper and Paul Winters. (2012) “Sowing the seeds of social relations: Social capital and agricultural diversity in Hararghe Ethiopia.” Environment and Development Economics 17(5): 547-578.

Salazar, Lina and Paul Winters. (2012) “The impact of seed market access and transaction costs on potato biodiversity and yields in Bolivia.” Environment and Development Economics 17(5): 633-661.

Covarrubias, Katia, Benjamin Davis and Paul Winters. (2012) “From Protection to Production: Productive Impacts of the Malawi Social Cash Transfer Scheme.” Journal of Development Effectiveness 4(1): 50–77.

2011

Todd, Jessica, Paul Winters and Guy Stecklov. (2011) “Evaluating the Impact of the Poverty-Reduction Programs on Fertility: The Case of the Red de Protección Social in Nicaragua.” Journal of Population Economics 25(1): 267-290.

Cavatassi, Romina, Mario Gonzalez , Paul Winters, Jorge Andrade, Patricio Espinosa and Graham Thiele. (2011) “Linking Smallholders to the New Agricultural Economy: An Evaluation of the Plataformas Program in Ecuador.” Journal of Development Studies 47(10): 1545-1573.

Zezza , Alberto, Paul Winters, Benjamin Davis, Gero Carletto, Katia Covarrubias, Luca Tasciotti and Esteban Quiñones. (2011) “Rural Household Access to Assets and Agrarian Institutions: A Cross Country Comparison.” European Journal of Development Research 23(4): 569-597.

Winters, Paul, Alessandro Maffioli and Lina Salazar. (2011) “Evaluating the Impact of Agricultural Projects in Developing Countries: Introduction to the Special Feature” Journal of Agricultural Economics 62(2): 393-402.

Cavatassi, Romina, Mario Gonzalez, Lina Salazar and Paul Winters. (2011) “Do Agricultural Projects Alter Crop Production Technologies? Evidence from Ecuador.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 62(2): 403-428.

Winters, Paul and Vera Chiodi (2011) “Oportunidades, Human Capital Investment and Long-term Poverty Reduction in Rural Mexico.” Journal of International Development 23(4): 515–538.

Todd, Jessica and Paul Winters (2011) “The Effect of Early Interventions in Health and Nutrition on On-time School Enrollment: Evidence from the Oportunidades Program in Rural Mexico.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 59(3): 549-581.

Zezza, Alberto, Gero Carletto, Benjamin Davis and Paul Winters. (2011) “Assessing the Impact of Migration on Nutrition.” Food Policy 36(1): 1-6.

Karamba, Wendy, Esteban J. Quiñones and Paul Winters. (2011) “Migration and nutrition in Ghana.” Food Policy 36(1): 41-53.

Nguyen, Minh and Paul Winters. (2011) “The impact of migration on nutrition: the case of Vietnam.” Food Policy 36(1): 71-87.

2010

Handa, Sudhanshu, Benjamin Davis, Marco Stampini and Paul Winters (2010) “Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: Assessing the impact of Progresa on Agricultural Households” Journal of Development Effectiveness 2(3):320-335.

Winters, Paul, Timothy Essam, Alberto Zezza, Benjamin Davis and Gero Carletto. (2010) “Patterns of Rural Development: A Cross-Country Comparison Using Microeconomic Data.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 61(3): 628–651.

Carletto, Gero, Angeli Kirk, Paul Winters, and Benjamin Davis (2010) “Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-Traditional Export Crops in Guatemala.” World Development 38(6): 814-827.

Davis, Benjamin, Carletto, Gero and Paul Winters (2010) “Migration, Transfers and Economic Decision Making among Agricultural Households.” Journal of Development Studies 46(1): 1-13.

Todd, Jessica, Paul Winters and Tom Hertz (2010) “Conditional Cash Transfers and Agricultural Production: Lessons from the Oportunidades Experience in Mexico.” Journal of Development Studies 46(1): 39-67.

Davis, Benjamin, Paul Winters, Gero Carletto, Katia Covarrubias, Esteban J. Quiñones, Alberto Zezza, Kostas Stamoulis, Carlo Azzarri and Stefania DiGiuseppe (2010) “A Cross Country Comparison of Rural Income Generating Activities.” World Development 38(1): 48-63.

2009

Winters, Paul and Benjamin Davis (2009) “Designing a program to support smallholder agriculture in Mexico: Lessons from PROCAMPO and Oportunidades.” Development Policy Review 27(5): 587-612.

Winters, Paul, Benjamin Davis, Gero Carletto, Katia Covarrubias, Esteban J. Quiñones, Alberto Zezza, Carlo Azzarri and Kostas Stamoulis (2009) “Assets, Activities and Rural Poverty: A Multicountry Analysis.” World Development 37(9): 1435–1452.

Winters, Paul, Guy Stecklov and Jessica Todd (2009) “Household structure and short-run economic change in Nicaragua.” Journal of Marriage and the Family 71 (August 2009): 708-726.

Zezza, Alberto Benjamin Davis, Gero Carletto, Kostas Stamoulis and Paul Winters (2009) “Rural Income Generating Activities: Whatever Happened to the Institutional Vacuum? Evidence from Ghana, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Vietnam.” World Development 37(7): 1297–1306.

Davis, Benjamin, Paul Winters, Thomas Reardon and Kostas Stamoulis (2009) “Rural Nonfarm Employment and Farming: Household-level Linkages.” Agricultural Economics 40(2): 119-123.

Oseni, Gbemisola and Paul Winters (2009) “Rural non-farm activities and agricultural crop production in Nigeria.” Agricultural Economics 40(2): 189-201.

2008

Álvarez, Carola, Florencia Devoto and Paul Winters (2008) “Why do beneficiaries leave the safety net in Mexico? A study of the effects of conditionality on dropouts.” World Development 36(4): 641-658.

2007

Stecklov, Guy, Paul Winters, Jessica Todd and Ferdinando Regalia (2007) “Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: Experimental evidence from Latin America.” Population Studies 61(2): 125-140.

2006

Ruiz, Marta, Benjamin Davis, Ashu Handa, Marco Stampini and Paul Winters (2006) “Program Conditionality and Food Security: The Impact of PROGRESA and PROCAMPO Transfers in Rural Mexico.” Revista Economia 7(2): 249-278.

2005

Stecklov, Guy, Paul Winters, Marco Stampini and Benjamin Davis (2005) “Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican PROGRESA program.” Demography 42(4): 769-790.

Simmons, Phil, Paul Winters and Ian Patrick (2005) “An Examination of Three Farm Contracts in Indonesia.” Agricultural Economics 33(3): 513-525.

Winters, Paul, Phil Simmons and Ian Patrick (2005) “Evaluation of a Hybrid Seed Contract between Smallholders and an MNC in East Java, Indonesia.” Journal of Development Studies 41(1): 62-89.

2004

Winters, Paul, Charles Crissman and Patricio Espinoza (2004) “Inducing the Adoption of Conservation Technologies: Lessons from the Ecuadorian Andes.” Environment and Development Economics 9(5): 697-719.

2002

Davis, Benjamin, Guy Stecklov and Paul Winters (2002) “Domestic and international migration from rural Mexico: Disaggregating the effects of network structure and composition.” Population Studies 56(3): 291-309.

Winters, Paul, Benjamin Davis and Leonardo Corral (2002) “Assets, Activities and Income Generation in Rural Mexico: Factoring in Social and Public Capital.” Agricultural Economics 27(2): 139-156.

Murgai, Rinku, Paul Winters, Alain de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet (2002) “Localized and Imperfect Reciprocity: An Analysis of the Limitations to Village-Level Risk Sharing.” Journal of Development Economics 67(2): 245-274.

2001

Davis, Benjamin and Paul Winters (2001) “Gender, Networks and Mexico-U.S. Migration.” Journal of Development Studies 28(2): 1-26.

Huong Le, Thu and Paul Winters (2001) “Aid Policies and Poverty Alleviation: The Case of Vietnam.” Asia-Pacific Development Journal 8(2): 27-44.

Winters, Paul, Alain de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet (2001) “Family and Community Networks in Mexico-U.S. Migration.” Journal of Human Resources 36(1): 159-184.

1998

Winters, Paul, Rinku Murgai, Alain de Janvry, Elisabeth Sadoulet and George Frisvold (1998) “Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change in Developing Countries.” Environmental and Resource Economics 12(1): 1-24.

Winters, Paul, Alain de Janvry, Elisabeth Sadoulet and Kostas Stamoulis (1998) “The Role of Agriculture in Economic Development: Visible and Invisible Transfers.” Journal of Development Studies 34(5): 71-97.

 

BOOK

Davis, Benjamin, Sudhanshu Handa, Nicola Hypher, Natalia Winder Rossi, Paul Winters and Jennifer Yablonski (eds.) (2016) From Evidence to Action: The Story of Cash Transfers and Impact Evaluation in Sub Saharan Africa. Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK.

 

WORKING PAPERS, GUIDELINES AND RESEARCH REPORTS

Salazar, Lina, Julian Aramburu, Mario Gonzalez Flores, and Paul Winters (2015) “Food Security and Productivity: Impacts of Technology Adoption in Small Subsistence Farmers in Bolivia.” IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-578. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.

Aramburu, Julian, Mario Gonzalez Flores, Lina Salazar and Paul Winters (2014) “When a Short-term Analysis in not a Short-term Approach: Impacts of Agricultural Technology Adoption in Bolivia.” IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-539. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.

Kilic, Talip, Edward Whitney and Paul Winters. (2013) “Decentralized Beneficiary Targeting in Large-Scale Development Programs: Insights from the Malawi Farm Input Subsidy Program” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6713, Washington, DC: World Bank.

Carletto, Calogero, Sydney Gourlay and Paul Winters. (2013) “From Guesstimates to GPStimates: Land Area Measurement and Implications for Agricultural Analysis.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6550, Washington, DC: World Bank.

Asfaw, Solomon, Katia Covarrubias, Benjamin Davis, Josh Dewbre, Habbiba Djebbari, Alessandro Romeo and Paul Winters. (2012) “Analytical framework for evaluating the productive impact of cash transfer programmes on household behavior: Methodological guidelines for the From Protection to Production Project.” London, UK: Department for International Development.

Mejia, Francisco and Paul Winters. (2012) “Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of IDB-funded projects.” Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.

McCarthy, Nancy, Paul Winters, Ana Maria Linares and Timothy Essam. (2012) “Indicators to Assess the Effectiveness of Climate Change Projects.” Impact Evaluation Guidelines, IDB Technical Notes No. IDB-TN-398. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.

Winters, Paul Lina Salazar and Alessandro Maffioli. (2010) “Designing Impact Evaluations for Agricultural Projects.” Impact Evaluation Guidelines, IDB Technical Notes No. IDB-TN-198. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.

Winters, Paul and Susana Sitja Rubio. (2010) “Evaluating the Impact of Regional Development Programs.” Impact Evaluation Guidelines, IDB Technical Notes No. IDB-TN-157. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.

Inter-American Development Bank (principal authors Mario González, Alessandro Maffioli, Lina Salazar, and Paul Winters). (2010) Assessing the Effectiveness of Agricultural Interventions: Development Effectiveness Overview 2008-2009 Special Topic. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank

Cavatassi, Romina, Mario Gonzalez , Paul Winters, Jorge Andrade, Patricio Espinosa and Graham Thiele (2009) “Linking Smallholders to the New Agricultural Economy: An Evaluation of the Plataformas Program in Ecuador.” ESA Working Paper No. 09-06, Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization.

Salazar, Lina, Paul Winters, Luis Maldonado, Guy Hareau and Graham Thiele. (2009) “Assessing the impact of late blight resistant varieties on smallholders’ potato production in the Peruvian Andes.” CIP Social Science Working Paper No. 2009-5, Lima, Peru: International Potato Center.

Carletto, Gero. Angeli Kirk, Paul Winters, and Benjamin Davis (2007) “Non-Traditional Crops, Traditional Constraints: the Adoption and Diffusion of Cash Crops among Guatemalan Smallholders.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4347, Washington, DC: World Bank.

Davis, Benjamin, Paul Winters, Gero Carletto, Katia Covarrubias, Esteban Quinones, Alberto Zezza, Kostas Stamoulis, Genny Bonomi and Stefania DiGiuseppe (2007) “Rural Income Generating Activities: A Cross Country Comparison.” Background Paper for the World Development Report 2008. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Zezza, Alberto, Paul Winters, Benjamin Davis, Gero Carletto, Katia Covarrubias, Esteban Quinones, Kostas Stamoulis, Takis Karfakis, Luca Tasciotti, Stefania DiGiuseppe and Genny Bonomi (2007) “Rural Household Access to Assets and Agrarian Institutions: A Cross Country Comparison.” Background Paper for the World Development Report 2008. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Todd, Jessica, Paul Winters and Diego Arias (2004) “CAFTA and the Rural Economies of Central America: A Conceptual Framework for Policy and Program Recommendations.” RE2-04-016 Economic and Sector Study Series, Inter-American Development Bank.

Davis, Benjamin  Sudhanshu Handa, Marta Ruiz-Arranz, Marco Stampini and Paul Winters (2002) “Conditionality and the Impact of Programme Design on Household welfare: Comparing two diverse cash transfer programmes in rural Mexico.” ESA Working Paper No. 02-10, Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization.

Winters, Paul, Leonardo Corral and Gustavo Gordillo (2001) “Rural livelihood strategies and social capital in Latin America: Implications for rural development projects.” School of Economics Working Papers in Agricultural and Resource Economics 2001-6. Armidale: University of New England, Australia.

Winters, Paul, Brian Hardaker and Ian Patrick (2001) “Defining practical guidelines for evaluating long-term, smallholder, decision-making in developing countries.” Report submitted to the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.

Corral, Leonardo, Paul Winters and Gustavo Gordillo (2000) “Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean.” School of Economics Working Papers in Agricultural and Resource Economics 2000-4 Armidale: University of New England, Australia, 2000.

Winters, Paul, Patricio Espinoza and Charles Crissman (1998) “Resource Management in the Andes: An Evaluation of CARE’s PROMUSTA Program.” Social Science Working Paper 1998-2. Lima, Peru: International Potato Center.

Winters, Paul and Hugo Fano (1997) “The Economics of Biological Control in Peruvian Potato Production.” Social Science Working Paper 1997-7. International Potato Center. Lima, Peru: International Potato Center.

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